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Thread: Russian Temps Turn Up Heat On Warmers

  1. #1
    THE FRIENDLY GHOST Active Member Rank CASPER's Avatar
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    Russian Temps Turn Up Heat On Warmers

    A Russian think tank alleges that climate-change data obtained from that country have been cherry-picked to overstate a rise in temperatures. With Russia accounting for a large portion of the world's land mass, incorrect data there could affect the analysis of global temperatures.

    The Institute of Economic Analysis, an independent Moscow-based organization, issued the report Tuesday. It was titled, "How Warming Is Being Made: The Case of Russia."

    It alleged that England's Hadley Centre for Climate Change and the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, the U.K.'s two top climate research outfits, had improperly selected climate data from Russia.

    The Hadley Centre has issued a statement saying it was impossible for them to have tampered with the data. The same statement conceded possible flaws, but these were due to "the limited availability of Northern Hemisphere high latitude observations." It further claimed that its data may actually have underestimated the warming trend in Russia.

    Climate Fallout

    The Russian study is part of the "climategate" fallout regarding the e-mails and other data leaked from the CRU last month. Some of the information appeared to show top climate scientists expressing private doubts about their data and in other cases tweaking them to bolster warming claims.

    The leaked data reignited debate over global warming science. Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., ranking Republican on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, has demanded a hearing into the leaked data.

    Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lisa Jackson, during a press conference to announce that the agency now had the authority to regulate greenhouse gases on its own, disputed that the leaks showed any need to reexamine the underlying science.

    In the wake of the controversy the CRU and Hadley Centre placed some of their previously private climate data in the public domain. The IEA study examines the data as they pertain to warming in Russia.

    The entire study has not been officially translated into English but institute president Andrei Illario-nov discussed the findings with IBD. He also wrote a summary of them for the free market Cato Institute, where he is a senior fellow.

    According to Illarionov, an analysis of the climate data shows that the data in Russia came from just 25% of the country's meteorological stations and missed about 40% of the country's land mass.

    The chosen stations tended to be the ones closer to large population centers, which tend to be warmer.

    "(The report) is an analysis of what stations have been used, what stations have not been used and, based on this analysis, it looks like the real actual temperature dynamics ... in Russia, that is the increase in warming, have been artificially increased by 0.64 degrees Celsius," Illarionov told IBD.

    Russia accounts for 12.5% of the world's total land mass, he notes, and argues that this calls for a reevaluation of United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change's finding that the global temperature rose 0.76 degrees Celsius over the last century.

    "The IEA report concludes that it is necessary to recalculate all global temperature data in order to assess the real rate of temperature change during the last century. Global temperature data will have to be modified because the calculations used by Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change analysts are based on (Hadley-CRU) research," Illarionov wrote in his Cato posting.

    William Yeatman, climate policy analyst for the free-market Competitive Enterprise Institute, notes that outside examination of the CRU and Hadley Centre data has only just begun.

    "If (the Russians) have isolated some sketchy scientific practices, chances are they going to isolate some more," he said.

    Hadley Defends Data

    In a statement e-mailed to IBD, the Hadley Centre disputed claims that there had been any data manipulation.

    "The World Meteorological Organisation (sic) chooses the set of stations designated as essential climate stations that have been released by the Met Office," the statement read.

    It further stated: "These are evenly distributed across the globe and provide a fair representation of changes in global average temperature over land. We do not choose these stations and therefore it is impossible for the Met Office to fix the data."

    The same statement also said the overall data were limited by the lack of the high latitude observations. Dave Britton, spokesman for the Met Office, the U.K.'s top climate organization, which includes the Hadley Centre, said that despite these limitations they had "every confidence" in the data. The IEA's claim that they only use a percentage of the Russian climate data available misses the point, he says.

    "If we use every single piece of temperature data that is available then we would probably suggest that the (Russian) warming would actually be greater," Britton said. They don't use all data, he explains, because they must be quality-controlled, taken from reliable sources and "consistent with other temperature data sets."

    He added that the Met Office would publish all underpinning station data as soon as it can. That may take a while though because those data come from climate centers in many different countries, some of which may not be willing to give up their intellectual property.

    The IEA's Illarionov has had a colorful, high profile career in Russia. A former top economic adviser to former President Vladimir Putin, he quit in late 2005, criticizing the government for backsliding on democracy.

    He subsequently founded the IEA and is now identified with Russia's political opposition. He is also a longtime critic of global warming claims.
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    Re: Russian Temps Turn Up Heat On Warmers

    Gate Climate: Russians recognize climate manipulation

    Thursday, December 17, 2009


    Gate goes SERIAL Climate: Russians now confirm that the UK climate scientists manipulated data to exaggerate global warming.

    Climate Gate just got much, much bigger. And all thanks to the Russians who, with perfect timing, this bomb shell dropped just as the world's leaders are gathering in Copenhagen to discuss ways of carbon-taxing us all back to the dark ages.

    Feast your eyes on this news release from Rionovosta, by the Ria Novosti agency, posted on Icecap. (Hat Tip: Richard North)

    A discussion of the Climatic Research Unit November 2009 e-mail hacking incident referred to by some sources as "Climate Gate," continues against the backdrop of the abortive UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen (CoP 15) discussing alternative agreements to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol that AIMED to combat global warming.

    The incident involved an e-mail server used by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UEA) in Norwich, east England. Unknown persons stole anonymously and disseminated thousands of e-mails and other documents dealing with the global-warming issue made over the course of 13 years.

    Controversy arose after various allegations were made including that climate scientists colluded to hold with scientific evidence and manipulated data to make the case for global warming appear stronger than it is.

    Climate Gate has already affected Russia. On Tuesday, the Moscow-based Institute of Economic Analysis (IEA) issued a report claiming that the Hadley Center for Climate Change based at the headquarters of the British Meteorological Office in Exeter (Devon, England) was probably tampered with Russian-climate data.

    The IEA believes that Russian meteorological station data did not substantiate the anthropogenic global-warming theory. Analysts say Russian meteorological stations cover most of the country's territory, and that the Hadley Center had used data submitted by only 25% of such stations in its reports . About 40% of Russian territory was not included in global-temperature calculations for some other reasons, rather than the lack of meteorological stations and observations.

    The data of stations located in areas not listed in the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature (HadCRUT) survey often does not show any substantial warming in the late 20th century and the early 21st century.

    The database includes specific HadCRUT stations providing incomplete data and highlighting the global-warming process, rather than facilitating uninterrupted observations stations.

    On the whole, climatologists use the incomplete findings of meteorological stations far more often than those providing complete observations.

    IEA analysts say climatologists use the data of stations located in large populated centers that are influenced by the urban heating effect more frequently than the correct data or remote stations.

    The scale of global warming was exaggerated due to temperature distortions for Russia accounting for 12.5% of the world's land mass. The IEA said it was necessary to recalculate all global-temperature data in order to Assess the scale of such exaggeration.

    Global-temperature data will have to be modified if similar climate-date procedures have been used from other national data because the calculations used by CoP 15 analysts, including financial calculations, are based on research HadCRUT.

    What the Russians are suggesting here, in other words, is that the entire global temperature record used by the IPCC to inform government policy world is a crock.

    As Richard North says: This is serial.

    UPDATE: As Steve McIntyre at Climate Audit reports, it has long been suspected that the CRU had especially been playing fast and loose with Russian - more particularly Siberian - temperature records. From March 2004 Here is an email from Phil Jones to Michael Mann.

    Recently rejected two papers (one for for JGR and GRL) from people saying it has CRU
    wrong about Siberia. Went to town in both reviews, hopefully successfully. If either
    appears
    I will be very surprised, but you never know with GRL.
    Cheers
    Phil

    And here at Watts Up With That is a guest post by Jeff Id of the Air Vent

    And here is what one of the commenters has to say about the way the data has been cherry-picked and skewed for political ends:

    The crux of the argument is that the CRU cherry picked data following the same methods that have been done everywhere else. They ignored data covering 40% of Russia and chose data that showed a warming trend over statistically preferable alternatives when available. They ignored completeness of data, urban data preferred, strongly preferred data from stations that relocated, ignored or length data set.

    One the final page, there is a chart that shows that selective use CRUs or 25% of the data created 0.64C warming more than simply using all of the raw data would have done. The complete set of data show 1.4C rise since 1860, the CRU set 2.06c shows rise over the same period.

    Not, of course, dear readers in any way that I'm tempted to crow about these latest revelations. After all, so many of my colleagues, junior and senior, have been backing me on this one to the hilt ....


    Oh, if anyone speaks Russian, here's the full report.


    Source: telegraph.co.uk
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    Friedrich Nietzsche

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