Doctors, health officials say there is no evidence of a resurgence

Steve Watson
Thursday, Oct 8, 2009

Doctors and health officials in areas that were subjected to H1N1 flu last spring are seeing very little evidence to suggest that the virus is returning in a much predicted “second wave”.

According to a report in the New York Times, areas that experienced a relatively high level of H1N1 cases earlier this year are now seeing a pattern of less swine flu.

“…in New York, which was the nation’s hardest-hit city, officials say that flu activity is no higher than it normally is at this time of year and that school attendance is normal.” the report states.

Following a theory put forth by Dr. Thomas A. Farley, New York City’s health commissioner, officials there believe that up to 40% of the city’s population may have developed immunity to the virus.

Despite this New York is still pushing ahead with the mandatory vaccination of all health workers.

Boston, Seattle, Connecticut and Utah, cities that also experienced the most cases of swine flu in the spring, have all reported lower levels of H1N1 cases as we move into the flu season.

In Canada too, the virus does not seem to be spreading quickly, a fact that has prompted the country’s top public health official to put the brakes on an early rollout of the H1N1 vaccine.

This raises a concerning question given that the first available vaccines, in the form of nasal mist, contain live H1N1 virus. Their use could actually spur the spread of the virus where there is otherwise little activity, according to some medical experts.

The following graphic from the New York Times piece illustrates the missing “second wave”.